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Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty.
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry?s actuarial tables and the gambler?s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provides no useful guidance to future outcomes, and for which so-called experts pretend answers. Instead of accepting false certainties, John Kay and Mervyn King advise that we should adopt robust business, policy, and personal strategies that are resilient to an uncertain future. Within the security of these reference narratives, uncertainty can be embraced.